My last research paper displayed a graphical representation of the number of cases, recoveries and deaths in India just before they started to plateau, but the data points seemed to be dependent on the current state of facilities for testing and ongoing social distancing and lockdown norms in India. What if a few new strategies used by countries who are very close to being virus were implemented in India? How would that change the situation? To find the answers to these and many such questions download the study using the icon below!!
Click the download icon above to see how these parameters would change if largescale testing (more than 4 times the current rate) and contact tracing systems were put into place starting now till the expected date of case plateauing.
Incase you want to see the working of the predictor, I have attached a link below as it might not open from the PDF in some devices.
(Just click on the screen and enter answers to the questions the program asks to get projections for the future of COVID-19.)
The research asks and answers some really important questions-
1) How did New Zealand and Hong Kong control the spread of the virus?
2) When will the curve plateau if India does what New Zealand and Hong Kong did?
3) Will the date of plateau change with increasing recovery rates?
4) How much will death rates be affected by contact tracing systems?
Alongside many such other questions, the research also provides a detailed analysis on how the number of cases will increase with increased testing, when will they start to decrease using the new strategies, how high the recovery rate as compared to earlier and how does the death rate of India compare to New Zealand and Hong Kong.
A detailed mathematical and statistical model compiled with the use of python provides me the opportunity to graph my projections for all such parameters.
Some frequently used websites for data inputs were-
Hope you have a wonderful time reading the research! Drop any suggestions in the comments or link a section from the research you might want a secondary article on. Share this post with as many people as you can!